His books include Japan, Russia and their Territorial Dispute: The Northern Delusion (Routledge 2017), Japans Foreign Relations in Asia, edited with Jeff Kingston (Routledge 2018), and The Abe Legacy, edited with Guibourg Delamotte and Robert Dujarric (Lexington 2021). Additionally, the two small islands targeted by Abe Shikotan and Habomai (which is actually a group of islets) account for only 7 percent of the disputed landmass. We have received so much support every day and are encouraged by the warm thoughts, she said. Kobara, who was born in Khabarovsk in eastern Russia, started living in Japan after his mother remarried to a Japanese national. These are all invaluable lessons the conflict in Ukraine has taught the people of Japan. This is what I meant by saying that Japan is awakening.. Ukraine also has no real allies as it is not a member of NATO. Japan quickly condemned Russias unilateral aggression and aligned with the Western sanctions regime on a number of issues (including export controls, financial measures, and visa restrictions). Nevertheless, the United States and other NATO members are providing military assistance to Ukraine while not directly involving their military forces in the war. In my view, there were two major reasons behind this. He holds an undergraduate degree from the University of York, and postgraduate degrees from the universities of Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Aberdeen. The maximum introduction of renewable energy is a top priority in Japans strategic energy plan and underpins national interest. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. The Kishida administration of Japan, along with other G7 countries, has imposed unprecedented levels of economic sanctions against Russia since February 24, 2022 when Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine.
The merits of this approach were already in question, but Russias invasion of Ukraine have made it untenable. This was a historic concession because previous Japanese administration had always emphasized all four islands. Your browser does not support JavaScript, or it is disabledPlease check the site policy for more information. He went to nursery school, elementary school, junior and senior high schools in Japan. As such, Tokyo needs to refocus its foreign policy repertoire toward Russia by aligning with like-minded countries. These have made it much easier for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to make a series of tough and sometimes unprecedented political decisions on Russia.
Yet, after Singapore, instead of progress towards a deal, Russias stance considerably hardened. The day before, Japan banned the issuance of Russian sovereign debt within Japan. In 2015, he also argued that Japan should drop sanctions and recognize Russian jurisdiction over Crimea in return for progress on the Northern Territories issue. Following this announcement, Dutch-UK Shell announced its intention to pull out of the Sakhalin-2 project, and U.S. Exxon announced it would pull out from the Sakhalin-1 project. A second sweetener was economic cooperation. The reality of the war in Ukraine reminds us that unless a people stand up and fight, allies will not help. The second reason is that even if Japan relinquishes its interests in Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 as part of economic sanctions against Russia, it is highly likely that countries that have not imposed economic sanctions against Russia, such as China and India, will acquire those interests. In seeking to finally settle this issue, Abe no doubt had an eye on his legacy, yet he was also motivated by strategic considerations. Kobara said he feels crushed when he thinks about people in Ukraine.
Aka-no-hiroba, a Russian food store in Tokyos Ginza district, displays bouquets of blue and yellow flowers, the colors of the Ukrainian national flag, on March 4. These are considerably less restrictive than measures introduced by other G7 members, yet they are still a sign that ties with Russia will not return to business-as-usual. Japan's Defense Strategy Trajectory, Line of Advantage: Japans Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinz, Can America Lead in Asia? Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS) is a fully independent Think Tank.The opinions expressed or implied in these articles are solely those of the author and have not been commissioned or endorsed by Canon. This was an acknowledgement of Abes willingness to compromise since that document mentions only two of the disputed islands. Abe even tried to give Putin a puppy but was rebuffed. Both Suga and Kishida even continued Abes practice of inviting Suzuki Muneo who is known as the Diets most pro-Russian member to the prime ministers office for monthly consultations about Russia policy. Japan vehemently condemns Russian aggression, which is a grave breach of international humanitarian law and war crimes for which Russia needs to be strictly held accountable. It is a blatant contradiction to state that Japan is opposed to Russias violent military action and heinous war crimes and then cooperate with state-owned enterprises on energy projects. It was not until nearly two and a half months into the war that Prime Minister Kishida, in alignment with G7 allies, finally announced Japans intention to gradually phase out Russian coal and oil imports, albeit half-heartedly, as Tokyo remained committed to supporting two ongoing joint liquified natural gas (LNG) projects in Sakhalin. All opinions expressed in articles on Tokyo Review are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Tokyo Review or any partner organization. He joined SPF after his work at the Moscow office of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and the Tokyo Foundation. Japan has not only swiftly joined the West in condemning Russias invasion of Ukraine and imposed heavy sanctions, but has also unconditionally accepted Ukrainian refugees and even provided bullet-proof vests and other military supplies to help in the wake of Vladimir Putins invasion. Her research has been featuredin:The Pacific Review, Asian Politics & Policy,The Hague Journal of Diplomacy,Asian Perspective, Japanese Journal of Political Science, Polar Geography and The Journal of Eurasian Studies. For instance, Prime Minister Kishida met Abe for dinner at Tokyos Palace Hotel on January 11, 2022 to listen to his advice on Japans Russia policy. The reality is that, under Putins regime, there is zero prospect of Japan achieving a favorable territorial settlement. What is more important, however, is the realization that defensive planning alone will not deter an aggressor. James D.J. She co-edited the volumeChina and Nordic Diplomacy(Routledge, 2018) and contributed chapters on Japan toKinship in International Relations(Routledge, 2018) and The Routledge Handbook of Arctic Security (Routledge, 2020). I am simply scared.. But we plan to keep our interests (in the two Sakhalin LNG projects) unchanged, Prime Minister Kishida told reporters following a virtual meeting of G7 leaders.
But Kobara cringes every time he checks his social media accounts because he expects to see abusive remarks and unwarranted insults directed at him because of what his homeland has done. A CSIS-NABEA Conference, Strategic Japan 2022: Competition in New Domains, The Prospects for a U.S.-Japan Technology Security Alliance, U.S. Business Leaders Not Ready for the Next U.S.-China Crisis, Beyond Foreign Military Sales: Opportunities to Enhance Japan-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation. Chinas Economy and Ukraine: All Downside Risks, Scott Kennedy (March 3, 2022) On March 4, many of the messages had been deleted. The Ukraine Crisis and Asia, Michael J. Japanese companies and organizations participated in both of the two major energy projects off the Russian island of Sakhalin, Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2, and one huge energy project in the Arctic region, the Arctic liquified natural gas (LNG) 2 project. For years, Japanese governments have been reluctant to stand up to Russia for fear that it could hamper the progress of territorial negotiations. Dr. Wrenn Yennie Lindgren The Japanese leader also faithfully attended Russias Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok each year between 2016 and 2019. Yet, from a foreign policy perspective, there is a silver lining. Moreover, in the long term, investing in human resources, infrastructure, technology, and research and development for innovation in renewable energy sources would both increase Japans energy independence and be more economically efficient. Foreign Affairs and National Security Specifically, there is strong public support for economic sanctions (73.7 percent), even at the risk of impacting the Japanese economy and livelihood. Third, for principle and moral reasons, Japan should abjure from Russian energy investments. Visit this page for the latest news on Japans battle with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Now, in light of the developments in Ukraine, such diplomatic rapprochement is simply out of sight and likely to remain so in the near future. All rights reserved. RESOLVED: The Lower House Election Is a Warning Sign for the LDP (November 2021) Putin cannot afford to lose this conflict; but there is no great victory in Russias future either. ), Russians join Ukrainians in Tokyo to protest war in Ukraine, Show of support for Ukraine comes from far and wide, Blue and yellow: Cities across Japan light up to support Ukraine, Angst, anger rising among Ukrainian expats across Japan, Ukrainian posts YouTube video critical of crisis in her homeland, Japan moving to supply Ukraine with defense equipment. Media One customer, a 28-year-old woman who lives in Tokyos Shinagawa Ward, said she learned about the vandalism on social media and decided to visit the shop for the first time. RESOLVED: Japan Is Entering a Period of Political Instability (September 2021), Strengthening the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Perspective from Two Ambassadors (May 9, 2022) U.S. The woman is also thinking about her homeland.
A website where people can review and rate shops and restaurants using Google Maps now contains many harassing comments and insults directed at Russia-related businesses.
Still, if Ukraine were a NATO member, Russia would not have likely been so bold as to invade. In addition, 80 to 90 percent of Japans LNG procurement comes from long-term contracts. She was a German Marshall Fund Young Strategist, a Chatham House-Korea Foundation Korea-Europe Next Generation Policy Expert, a Japan Foundation Fellow at Meiji University and a visiting fellow at Waseda Universitys Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies (GSAPS). Tel: +81-3-6213-0550 Second, decoupling from the Russian market can coincide with heightened incentives to phase in renewables and diversify Japans energy supply, as it has in the European context. It is only when people are willing to risk their lives to fight that allies will join in and provide assistance. In the most recent edition of the Kanteis Japan Stands with Ukraine document, the rhetoric has become more pointed. Organization, Directors, Articles of Incorporation, War in Ukraine shatters Japan's pacifist dreams. This has repeatedly been used by Moscow as a source of leverage. In March, the United States announced that it would prohibit the import of Russian oil, gas, and coal, as well as new investments in Russias energy sector, and the European Union is now following suit with its own sanctions package.
He was born in 1969. Tokyo has already set a target for 50 percent renewable energy dependency by 2030, and is well-positioned to push for speeding up the green energy transition both domestically and internationally. It is thus unthinkable that the Japanese prime minister can resume courting them in the way Abes government did. There is no doubt that Russias invasion of Ukraine will have lasting effects on the world order, including the ever-shifting chessboard of the global energy market. HANNAH FODALE is an associate fellow with the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she focuses on projects involving U.S.-Japan relations and security in the Indo-Pacific region. Vlas Kobara, a Russian YouTuber based in Japan, has denounced Moscows invasion of Ukraine and criticized President Vladimir Putin. As a nation that claims to pride itself on its values-oriented foreign policy and its allegiance to the free and open international order, Japan should fully condemn Russias unilateral attack on Ukraine. Is this only a temporary phenomenon in Japan? at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Japans dependence on Russia for LNG imports accounts for 8.8 percent. To begin with, an emphasis on deepening economic cooperation with Russia is now impossible, not least because on February 25, Japan announced three categories of sanctions: 1) visa bans and asset freezes on designated individuals related to Russia; 2) asset freezes on three Russian banks (VEB.RF, Promsvyazbank, Bank Rossiya); 3) restrictions on the export to Russia of dual-use goods such as semiconductors. If Japan is committed to holding Russia accountable with economic and political pressure, then on principled grounds, it should fully abnegate any role in Russian energy projects. Although Russia is the worlds third-biggest producer of oil (after the United States and Saudi Arabia) and the largest exporter of gas, it only accounts for 3.6 percent of crude and 8.8 percent of LNG imports in Japan. They fear that if their anti-war protests become known, their family members in Russia could be detained, or they themselves would be in danger when they return to their homeland, he said. Moreover, the peace treaty negotiations had already been stalled since the end of the Abe administration. She wrote in a Twitter post, We work here, hoping to be a bridge between Japan and Ukraine, Russia and other countries.. The Japanese government has introduced a ban on new investment in Russia, including the energy sector, and also clarified its policy to reduce its energy dependence on Russia. Russian president Vladimir Putins violent attack on Ukraine in late February immediately sent a number of shocks throughout the international system, not least through the global energy markets, where Russia is a major supplier. There are, nevertheless, a few areas of cooperation with Russia that the Japanese government still intends to maintain as long as possible. The outcome of this battle may be crucial in not only determining the course of the entire war, but also in sending the right message to China, which may also be contemplating an attempt at changing the status-quo by force in this part of the world. She is currently working on a book manuscript on the legitimation of Japanese foreign policy and research projects on the politics of infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1518226592045-0'); }); googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1518226653270-0'); }); FIGURE SKATING/ Hanyu plans as a pro to become better, stronger and land a quad, The lion is king of all it surveys either in the wild or in captivity, Gunman was just 5 meters behind Abe when he got off 2nd fatal shot. On 27 February, the Japanese announced that it too would subject Putin to sanctions.
Washington effectively deterred Russia by declassifying and sharing top secret information related to the Russian military. Therefore, withdrawal from energy projects in Russia would be more costly to Japan itself than it is to Russia. ABOUT THE EDITOR A CSIS-NABEA Conference (April 12, 2022) This was followed by a meeting at the prime ministers office on February 9 at which Russia-Japan relations and the Ukraine crisis were again top of the agenda. Now, however, there is not much separating conservatives and the liberal left, with both condemning Russias atrocities in Ukraine. I support the governments position on maintaining energy interests in Russia, Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 in particular. Unlike during the Gulf War of the early 1990s or the Iraq War nearly a decade later, the people of Japan seem to finally feel that it is high time for Tokyo to face the unpleasant realities of the world. During a summit with Putin in Singapore in November 2018, Abe felt he finally had a breakthrough. Dr Browns work has been published in several academic journals, including International Affairs, Asia Policy, International Politics, Post-Soviet Affairs, Europe-Asia Studies, Problems of Post-Communism, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, and Politics. If that happens, the economic damage for Russia would be quite limited. In pursuit of this agenda, Abe agreed on a new approach to relations with Russia during a visit to Sochi in May 2016. He also regularly writes op-eds, including for The Nikkei Asian Review, The Japan Times, and The Diplomat. Japans only partial pivot away from the Russian energy market is problematic for a number of reasons core to Japanese interests, including in terms of public economics, principles, and politics. On February 28, just four days after Russias military invasion of Ukraine began, British oil giant BP announced its intention to exit its 19.75 percent shareholding in Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft. Yennie Lindgren holds a PhD in International Relations from Stockholm University and master's degrees in International Policy Studies (Monterey Institute of International Studies, U.S.) and Asia and Middle East Studies (University of Oslo). Suzuki is a controversial figure since he was sentenced to a two-year prison sentence in 2004 for bribery, perjury, and violating Japans Political Funds Control Law. Indeed, in an extraordinary misjudgment, Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa conducted trade talks on February 15 with Russian Minister of Economic Development Maksim Reshetnikov. No reproduction or republication without written permission. Therefore, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida felt it easier than former prime minister Shinzo Abe to make this decision in favor of cooperation with G7 countries. The Russian leaders strategic miscalculations have been costly. The change to the Russian constitution was a clear sign that Japans new approach had failed, yet, even after Abe left office in September 2020, his successors Suga Yoshihide (2020 to 2021) and Kishida Fumio (2021 to present) maintained the pretence that the policy was still in operation due to the influence that Abe, who is now head of the Liberal Democratic Partys largest faction, continues to wield within the party. Individuals such as Abe Shinzo and Suzuki Muneo long argued that Putin, as a strong, nationalist leader, had the authority to drive through a territorial deal against Russian popular opposition, and that his leadership thus represented an opportunity for Japan. Similarly, in March 2018, after Russian intelligence officers conducted a botched assassination attempt on British soil using a nerve agent, Japan was the only G7 member not to expel any Russian officials. 2022.05.13, Many Japanese are now realizing that the best military defense might include a good offense. Brown is an associate professor of Political Science at Temple University, Japan Campus. There are two main reasons. This is also what the Japanese public wants, with roughly 86 percent of citizens favoring sanctions and a firm stance against Moscow. Senior Research Fellow, Security Studies Program, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and Associate Research Fellow, Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation, Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts, Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations, Building Sustainable and Inclusive Democracy, Responding to Egregious Human Rights Abuses, 3.6 percent of crude and 8.8 percent of LNG imports, has committed to cutting 90 percent of Russian oil imports, 50 percent renewable energy dependency by 2030, public support for economic sanctions (73.7 percent), expressing commitment to the free and open global commerce of oil and natural gas amongst friendly nations, Downside of High Prices: Five Trends in Global Gas, U.S. Strategy: Rebalancing Global Energy between Europe, Russia, and Asia and U.S. Security Policy in the Middle East and the Gulf, Chinas Economy and Ukraine: All Downside Risks, RESOLVED: Japan Should Focus on Increasing Indigenous Defense Production, RESOLVED: The Lower House Election Is a Warning Sign for the LDP, RESOLVED: Japan Is Entering a Period of Political Instability, Strengthening the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Perspective from Two Ambassadors, The Spear and the Shield? This will necessitate a major rethink of Japans Russia policy. It later became apparent that the central feature of this policy was Abes willingness to settle for the return of just two of the four disputed islands. Strategy: Rebalancing Global Energy between Europe, Russia, and Asia and U.S. Security Policy in the Middle East and the Gulf, Anthony H. Cordesman (May 12, 2022) In the context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, this argument now looks risible. The promoters of bilateral cooperation between Tokyo and Moscow have been silent since the beginning of the invasion. Regarding crude oil, Japans dependence on Russia accounts for only 3.6 percent, but Japan imports about 90 percent of it from the Middle East, making Russia the largest import destination outside of that region. She wrote on social media, I sincerely hope that peace visits both countries and they become friendly., (This article was written by Natsuki Edogawa, Azusa Ushio and Yusuke Saito. Business Leaders Not Ready for the Next U.S.-China Crisis, Michael J. However, when it came to energy, Tokyo initially chose not to follow suit, citing both concerns about rising prices affecting Japanese livelihoods and geopolitical risks associated with China taking advantage of the market. This author does not have any more posts. Hopefully, this may eventually force Japan to develop a full-fledged external intelligence service for the first time since 1945. In the 27th issue of the Debating Japan newsletter series, the CSIS Japan Chair invited Taisuke Abiru, senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, and Wrenn Yennie Lindgren, senior research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, to assess Japans investments in Russian oil and gas and whether it should fully divest from Russian energy. Google told The Asahi Shimbun that it removes messages and reviews when it confirms they are not based on actual experiences or truthful information. The European Union, heavily reliant on Russian imports, has committed to cutting 90 percent of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 and has rolled out plans to upgrade its Green Deal climate policy to meet energy needs. He said it hurts when he sees such negative remarks against him, but he decided to continue speaking his mind on social media because if I dont say anything, it will make me look like I am supporting the war.. He also said he can never forgive Putin for his actions. In that sense, the significance of Sakhalin-1 in terms of Japans energy security is not small. Yennie Lindgren has previously held research positions at the Norwegian Institute of Defense Studies (IFS), United Nations UniversityTokyo, the U.S. EmbassyTokyo and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The war in Ukraine is changing the mindset of Japanese citizens and forcing them, whether they like it or not, to gradually reconsider their preferred, but unrealistic post-WWII pacifism for numerous reasons. The Spear and the Shield? Ordinary people in Japan are beginning to realize this. Their analysis, even with a wealth of knowledge, did not help them in foreseeing Russias invasion or Putins determination. Green (March 1, 2022), RESOLVED: Japan Should Focus on Increasing Indigenous Defense Production (March 2022) On the very day of the election in December 2012 that returned him to power, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo made explicit that relations with Russia would be a leading priority of his foreign policy. We deliver the latest CIGS news by email. Predictions by Russia hands are not always reliable. In fact, something is different among the Japanese these days. The manager said she is happy to see the increase in business. EMAIL: mail-info@canon-igs.org, 11th Floor, ShinMarunouchi Building
On the afternoon of March 4, more than 10 people waited in line to shop at the store. In contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remained in Kyiv to bravely lead the fight against a much more powerful Russian military. Others are afraid that exposing themselves as Russians, even by openly opposing Putins attack on Ukraine, would make them targets of verbal abuse in Japan, he said. In response to this action, the Putin administration of Russia included Japan in the list of unfriendly countries and announced the suspension of bilateral peace treaty negotiations, which successive Japanese governments had worked hard on. And NATO countries have no legal obligation to defend Ukraine in the event of a military invasion. Fortunately, they were roundly criticized and the argument was dropped. Strategic Japan 2022: Competition in New Domains (April 8, 2022) 5-1 Marunouchi 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku,
However, if Japan has to buy LNG in the spot market, procurement costs could increase significantly. It is not only the right thing to do; it is in Japans national interest. Compared to crude oil, procurement sources of LNG are more diversified, and its dependence on the Middle East is about 20 percent. Now, however, with a territorial agreement so patently not on the cards, Japan is free to reassess its policy and join Western partners in taking a firmer stance in opposing Putins international aggression. Green and Scott Kennedy (May 16, 2022) The war in Ukraine is beginning to show Japans post-WWII utopian pacifist dream is a relic of the past. EMAIL: press-info@canon-igs.org. We will take steps to phase out (Russian oil imports) in a manner that minimizes adverse effects on peoples lives and business activities. For the two reasons outlined above, Japan should maintain investments in Russian oil and gas projects.