Looking at this insider transaction trend, we think theres a good chance that this area of the market could outperform in 2022. In both reports, we said that we saw insider buying as a bullish indicator. "Conceptually it's priced in but quantitatively there's potential for more upside," said Piper Sandler analyst Jeffery Harte recently. In this series, we look back at prior 2iQ reports to see how the stock price of a company has Last year, President Joe Biden forwarded his Build Back Better bill which, among other points, {module_16055364076381={body={instrument=[{activity_value=Bearish , pattern_value=Rising short interest , change_value=-71.63%, news_value=Q1 results , change_highlight=highlight__red--change, shortname=(BYND:US), company_name=BEYOND MEAT INC, highlight_class=highlight__red, labels={activity_label=Activity:, change_label=12 months:, news_label=News:, pattern_label=Pattern:}}], module_id=37505177695}, css={}, child_css={}, id=module_16055364076381, name=module_16055364076381, type=module, order=6, label=Insider Aside, smart_type=null, styles={}, module_id=37505177695}, module_16058671368905={body={blog_category=3, module_id=37893297064}, css={}, child_css={}, id=module_16058671368905, name=module_16058671368905, type=module, order=3, label=Category Selector, smart_type=null, styles={}, 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While insider transaction data can help investors identify opportunities at the individual stock level, it can also be used at sector and market-level to identify attractive opportunities. Year to date, we have observed nearly 20 insider purchases worth over $75,000 in this area of the market. Meanwhile, on February 8, we looked at the $350k in buys at Banc of California. who are typically ahead of the curve are buying stock hand over fist. The most accurate and comprehensive insider transaction data in the investment management industry. Is this insider transaction activity a signal that this area of the market is about to rip higher? For a start, the US economic recovery has spurred consumer spending, which is encouraging companies to boost their inventories. One reason we say this is that insiders in this industry have shown the ability to buy low in the recent past. insider trades worth $75,000 or more in this industry below: area of the market could outperform in 2022. both the Dow Jones US Select Regional Banks and the Nasdaq Regional Banking indexes surged more than 25% to new all-time highs. We have listed insider trades worth $75,000 or more in this industry below: Its worth noting that we have covered a number of these trades in our insider buying reports. Secondly, the US Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates at least four times in 2022.
Of those transactions, six were worth more than $200,000. Zooming out on the data today, one trend that stands out to us is that insiders at small US banks are buying stock in droves right now. So, theres value on offer right now. Higher interest rates benefit banks as it leads to higher net interest margins. Another reason this area of the market could outperform in 2022 is that the economic backdrop is highly supportive. This is increasing demand for business loans. Meanwhile, KBW's director of research, Matthew Kelley, recently pointed out that in the 2016-2018 Fed tightening cycle, bank stocks did not peak until 21 months after the central bank started raising rates. Insiders at US Regional Banks are Buying Stock Hand Over Fist in 2022. As is often the case, insiders were one step ahead of the rest of the market and were able to make substantial gains from their industry knowledge. Is this insider transaction activity a signal that this area of the market is about to rip higher? In the first quarter of 2021, both the Dow Jones US Select Regional Banks and the Nasdaq Regional Banking indexes surged more than 25% to new all-time highs. the US economic recovery has spurred consumer spending. the US Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates at least four times in 2022. many analysts believe bank stocks do not fully reflect these expectations. Beyond Meat Stock: Short Sellers See Further Downside, Hedge Funds Ramp Up Their Short Bets on Hyzon Motors Inc (HYZN:US), Oatly Stock: Short Sellers See Further Downside, Short Sellers Continue to Target Lemonade Inc Despite Share Price Fall. Its worth noting that while investors have been positioning their portfolios for Fed rate hikes for some time, many analysts believe bank stocks do not fully reflect these expectations. Our insider transaction data shows that in 2022, there have been a considerable number of substantial insider purchases at US regional banks. This year, we have seen insiders snap up millions of dollars worth of stock in this area of the market. At present, the KBW Regional Bank index is currently trading at around 70% of the S&P 500's multiple compared with its more typical 90% level. Putting this all together, we think that US regional banks look attractive right now from an investment point of view. Finally, valuations across the sector remain attractive. And look at how this area of the market performed in early 2021. So, what does this mean for investors? Studies on insider trading have found that aggregate insider transaction activity, or broad insider buying and selling patterns, can be a powerful predictor of sector and market returns. For example, on February 1, we looked at the $229k CFO purchase at Flagstar Bancorp. The economic backdrop is highly supportive and insiders who are typically ahead of the curve are buying stock hand over fist. If we go back to late 2020, insiders at small US banks were buying stock heavily then too.