Meanwhile, Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer are projected to take a step back, but still put up good numbers in the rotation. I believe the Cardinals come out on top and it turns out that Im not alone. With that out of the way, lets take a look at ZiPS updated expectations for a few Yankees. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images). There were positives from the first half of the 2022 Marlins season that are worth noting. After platooning with Tucker Barnhart last season, Stephenson has been given the keys and will be the Cincinnati Reds everyday catcher next season. While Rowdy Tellez still should factor in at first base, Keston Hiura continues to fade and needs to step up somewhere before he runs out of time. Required fields are marked *. As the season gets closer, projections are coming out for the upcoming season. FanGraphs release ZiPS Projections for 2022 Brewers, Keep track of how much the Brewers sign their draft picks for as the future arrives in Milwaukee, Stay tuned here for updates on the Brewers draft picks, their projections for the Milwaukee Brewers, Devin Williams pitches scoreless inning, National League falls to American League 3-2. Interestingly, ZiPS still does not see a substantial increase in Cortes innings pitched, only revising that total upward by 14.2. I could get used to this. Stock up (but by less than youd expect): Anthony Rizzo, Pre-season projections: 132 G, 23 HR, 75 RBI, .823 OPS, 2.8 fWAR, Season to date: 25 G, 9 HR, 21 RBI, .937 OPS, 0.9 fWAR, Updated projections: 139 G, 31 HR, 90 RBI, .856 OPS, 3.1 fWAR. MLB Lockout Rumors: Progress Made On Draft Lottery In Latest CBA Negotiations. There is an outside chance that the Brewers make a splash signing (Nelson Cruz?) The offseason is far from over, so I dont want to get caught up in hypotheticals about the potential of a team that should look different by the time Opening Day arrives. Although Im focusing only on players who have graduated from prospect eligibility, shoutout to Bryson Brigman for vaulting himself onto ZiPS radar with a productive season at Triple-A Jacksonville (up from -0.7 zWAR to 0.9 zWAR). I thought that if anyone on the Yankees offense would have seen their projections skyrocket, it would be Rizzo, who has absolutely mashed baseballs early in the season. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. Rather, I am fascinated by the individual players whose projections have changed the most since the 2021 preseason edition of ZiPS. FanGraphs predicts Stephenson to hit .266/.347/.402 with 10 homers, 45 RBIs, and be worth 1.9 fWAR. They are both built differently the Cardinals rely on a star-powered offense and the Brewers have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball and it will be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out through the 162-game (we hope) season. Free Gift! Please contact us atdmb_info@imaginesports.comto request your e-gift card after you have placed your order. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the Marlins to acquire a Hall of Fame-caliber hitter in the prime of his career. The moment never seemed too big for Tyler Stephenson last season, and I'm expecting more of the same from the Georgia native in 2022. Rizzos Outs Above Average, similar to his teammate, sits in the 8th percentile. With a projected 3.0 fWAR and 106 OPS+, hes currently seen as having the best season on the team. The defending World Series champion Braves have been pegged to finish ahead of the New York Mets (88-74) by two games in the NL East. (0 It will require more substantial upgrades to the major league roster on the other side of the lockout to feel confident in this club as a contender. If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. That could come from Luis Urias, who had a strong 2021 season and is projected to lead the Brewers offense in 2022. The Marlins took a sensible, straightforward approach to this years draft, playing to the organizations pitching strengths while blending floor and ceiling. ZiPS is in sell mode on Rizzos glove, revising its initial negative forecast of -8.5 Def down even further, to -11.4. This would place the Angels 7th overall in the AL, which could be just enough to get them into the playoffs if MLB and the Players Association agree to expand the postseason to 14 teams as the owners wish. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. But it seems ZiPS has reconsidered the quality of the innings they expect him to toss, nearly doubling their initial projection of 1.1 fWAR to 2.1. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. And with a 2.68 ERA covering 117.2 innings pitched since the beginning of 2021 and a lot of red ink on his Baseball Savant profile this season (elite xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and K%), theres no reason to think Cortes is in danger of falling off a cliff. ZiPS pessimism about Gallos defense represents a loss of about one-third of a win over the course of the season. 123 Main Street Despite the struggles on offense, the Brewers pitching staff still has them as projected to challenge for another NL Central title. Meanwhile, the batters are still looking for someone to step up. In a mirror of Cortes hot start, we have Joey Gallos season-long struggles, which likewise have forced a ZiPS adjustment. Despite all the changes, Cincinnati still looks to field a competitive team in 2022 while reducing payroll. For a second consecutive year, the NL Central is expected to be a two-way race between the St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) and Milwaukee Brewers (88-74). There's still time for Cincinnati to make some solid roster additions; maybe re-signing Nick Castellanos? Their pitching was dominant and their offense provided just enough firepower to win close games. Top 10 All-Time Cardinals Starting Pitchers. Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs noted that the ZiPS projections will be updated in during Spring Training after the lockout ends and business resumes.
Let's take a look at five Reds players who will outperform their ZiPS projections next season. The game software provides you with all of the tools you need to play simulated games, make roster moves, produce dozens of statistical reports, generate league schedules, and more >>, Deluxe Past Seasons with transactions and lineups, Cart Aaron Ashby is also projected to be a vital part of the Brewers pitching staff, with his stats split between starting and relieving (38 games, 19 starts), though currently is projected to be in the bullpen. Unsurprisingly, when a team is winning so frequently, some individual Yankees are off to hot starts. But it turns out Im not alone in viewing the Cardinals as the favorites, as FanGraphs latest ZiPS projections have them winning the NL Central with an 89-73 record. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. But after Cortes accumulated two-thirds of ZiPS initial WAR forecast in the first month of the season, their expectations almost had to increase considerably. The newly improved Texas Rangers, who made multiple splashes in free agency this offseason, still have a lot of work to do as they are projected to finish last at 73-89. None of the other teams in the division are projected to finish at .500 or above. Following them are the Toronto Blue Jays (89-73), the Tampa Bay Rays (88-74) and Boston Red Sox (83-79). Meanwhile, the bullpen remains strong with Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Jake Cousins leading the team and all posting K/9 over 12. However, the players have reportedly pushed for 12 teams to make it. The Houston Astros remain the favorites in the West as they are projected to finish the season 91-71, the second-highest mark in baseball. We have added a new DMB-style ballpark diagram for the 2022 season: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (updated in 2022). Bonus! See our ethics statement. But a quick look at Gallos defensive forecast might explain the pessimistic ZiPS forecast for the rest of the season. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. The Reds exceeded expectations last season, and they'll have to do so again if they hope to compete for the NL Central Division crown. All customers who buy the2022 Projection Seasondatabase before October 1st, 2022 will receive the 2022 Postseason Teams databasefor no extra charge in early October. Of course, infield mates Willy Adames and Kolten Wong arent far behind, with projected fWAR of 2.9 and 2.6, respectively. In fact, I think we'll see Stephenson find a home in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup and be given plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. That's not a bad season to be sure, but it's a drop-off from Stephenson's rookie season when he hit .286/.366/.431 with 10 homers, 45 runs batted, and 2.0 fWAR. Yankees potential trade target: Frankie Montas. Besides, the Cardinals are going to continue to add to the roster once the lockout ends, with upgrading the bullpen and adding starting pitching/offensive depth all on the teams radar. Who has the best fastball on the St. Louis Cardinals? Sorry, but I'm not seeing a sophomore slump from the Reds catcher in 2022. But given how the offseason unfolded prior to the lockout, most fans foresee more of a selloff than a buying spree. Most level-headed Marlins fans can agree with that, right? And indeed, ZiPS has moved Rizzos 2022 ceiling upward across the board offensively, including a nearly double-digit increase in homeruns and a more than 30-point jump in OPS. Todays Marlins news roundup also includes updated NL Cy Young award odds for Sandy Alcantara. Like Gallo, ZiPS is not alone in its assessment of Rizzos glove early in the season. First, let's look at Tyler Stephenson. items) - New York, NY 10001, Hours What would it cost the Marlins to trade for Juan Soto? The collective bargaining discussions continue between the MLBPA and MLB owners, but preparations continue for the 2022 season regardless of it. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. And if his bat indeed recovers, Im sure we can all handle it if Gallo isnt the greatest left fielder of all time. As Lindsey Adler identified yesterday in The Athletic though, Rizzo finished in the top three in OAA among first basemen last season, so it is entirely possible that ZiPS is too pessimistic on where Rizzos glove will end up after the Yankees have played 162 games. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Luis Urias lead the projections. The Chicago White Sox are once again expected to be the only quality team in the AL Central, finishing 88-74. Your email address will not be published.
Even after his breakout 2021 season, Cortes came into 2022 with a career 4.66 ERA over 172 innings. Rounding out the AL West, the Oakland As are projected to finish at .500 with the same record as the Angels while the Seattle Mariners fall one game behind at 80-82. Trevino a breakout star; Judge/Jones comparisons; Hall of Fame getting harder to crack; sizing up the AL, NYY @ HOU: Domingo Germn vs. Luis Garcia. Which Miami players does the projection system feel significantly better or worse about compared to one year ago? The rest of the division goes as followed: That feels about right. They released their projections for the Milwaukee Brewers, giving us a look into what we could see in the upcoming season. What jumped out to me initially though was that, while their offensive forecast for Gallo trends downward, it doesnt seem to warrant a 30% drop in fWAR (from 4.0 to 2.8 with only one-sixth of the season played). The second-best pitcher likely available at the deadline is a fascinating mix of top-end potential and uncertainty. Nevertheless, their starts are reflected in ZiPS updated projections, so Ive decided to look at which Yankees have seen their stock fluctuate the most even in the early going.
Whether his backup is Mark Kolozsvary, Andrew Knapp, or another backstop not yet on the roster is irrelevant. St. Louis Cardinals news fromFanSided Daily, Looking back on the St. Louis Cardinals decision to trade Stephen Piscotty. Where does the St. Louis Cardinals farm system rank in MLB? It is perhaps understandable that ZiPS initial forecast for Nasty Nestor was not exactly shooting the moon. That's a bold strategy, but perhaps it'll work.
Hes currently an invaluable piece in the Yankees rotation. As an aside, I did not forget about Aaron Judge, whose forecast, obviously, is trending upward. On the pitching side, theres no surprise who is leading the pack. Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onSt. Louis Cardinals and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. Saturday & Sunday: 11:00AM3:00PM. The Philadelphia Phillies (82-80), Miami Marlins (80-82) and Washington Nationals (75-87) round out the NL East standings. Ill highlight the Marlins players whose projected zWAR for this upcoming season is up or down by at least 0.6 wins compared to 2021. The Fish boast some of the best pitching prospects in the sport, but what about their young bats? Szymborski projects a wins above replacement value for each player (zWAR). 3 ways David Green impacted the 1980s St. Louis Cardinals. Pre-season projections: 134 G, 38 HR, 91 RBI, .859 OPS, 4.0 fWAR, Season to date: 22 G, 3 HR, 4 RBI, .632 OPS, 0.0 fWAR, Updated projections: 136 G, 34 HR, 75 RBI, .806 OPS, 2.8 fWAR. Baseball Savant backs up ZiPS assessment, with Gallo in the 8th percentile of their Outfielder Jump and Outs Above Average metrics. For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. Your email address will not be published. But both these teams will be evenly matched, but in different ways. The Cardinals and Brewers areboth very good and the class of the NL Central, with it being extremely likely that itll be a two-team race for most, if not all, of the 2022 season. Despite all that, and the 0.9 fWAR Rizzo has already accumulated, the uptick in his overall value is noticeably less than I expected. so nothing can be ruled out. $ 0.00, 1957 Deluxe Past Season with transactions and lineups, Diamond Mind Baseball Encyclopedia: Version 12, 1963 Deluxe Past Season with transactions and lineups. They could still use some help, but theres still time in free agency to address the issues that the team has. The Cardinals defeated the Mets 7-6 in eleven innings. Regardless, hes projected for a 3.67 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and 10.9 K/9 rate. Originally, ZiPS foresaw Gallo as a middling left fielder for the 2022 season with -0.4 Def (Defensive Runs Above Average, with a built-in positional adjustment). Stock Up, Stock Down: Updated ZiPS Yankees projections, NYY @ HOU: Jordan Montgomery vs. Cristian Javier. One should assume that last year's rookie should get 120-plus starts behind the dish in 2022. Through a combination of aging and skill development/degradation, which Marlins are being viewed significantly differently than they were the previous year? Despite that, the Cleveland Guardians (78-84) are expected to come in second, followed by the Detroit Tigers (76-86), Minnesota Twins (75-87) and Kansas City Royals (74-88). Yankees 2, Astros 3: Another tough loss at Minute Maid. After a bit of a bland start to the 2022 season, the Yankees went supernova and reeled off 11 consecutive wins before finally losing a one-run game in Toronto on Wednesday night. This image file is available as a free download from ourPark Imagespage. So while Gallos bat hasnt exactly been torrid, some of ZiPS pessimism is fielding related.